How Many Times Could Tom Brady Make the Hall of Fame?

When considering the Greatest of All Time in a sport, what do you look for? Usually it’s some combination of individual accolades, career records, and championships. You seek to answer several important questions about the athlete. How great was their best? How long were they great? Did they elevate those around them?

Hitting any one of the three is fairly commonplace. Hitting two really gets you in the conversation. Only a hallowed few have all three: Bill Russell, Babe Ruth, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Stan Musial, Gordie Howe, Michael Jordan, Mickey Mantle, LeBron James, Wayne Gretzky.

Tom Brady meets all three of these requirements with flying colors. He is football’s G.O.A.T., has been for some time, and it’s not close.

He’s been so great for so long, that one can barely quantify just how far ahead of the pack he is. Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight laid it out very clearly:

Both the early-career and late-career versions of Brady made at least six Pro Bowls, one All-Pro first team and five Super Bowls, with three wins coming in the first half of his career and four wins in the second. If we split Brady into two separate careers, the first half would rank 17th in total value over replacement since 1966, and the second half would rank 12th.

In other words, Brady’s career is hiding not one but two of the top 20 quarterbacks in modern history inside of it!

This “two top 20 quarterbacks” mark, as crazy as it sounds, undersells Brady since it doesn’t account for his championships. Tom’s Hall of Fame case has been decided for some time. But, if we were to divide his career into smaller “subcareers,” how many of those would make the Hall of Fame?

Disclaimer

Brady’s counting stats in any of these stints would certainly be on the smaller side. But, with the Hall inducting the likes of Terrell Davis and Calvin Johnson, I believe the voters could be swayed to look at each subcareer through the lens of individual achievement and team success and let him in. Also, while we’re disclaiming, I am not a Tom Brady fan. I’ve rooted against him since 2004. But doggone it, sometimes you have to step back and acknowledge when you’re watching something special.

Without any further ado, let’s get started.

2000-2004 — The “Alexander the Great” of the NFL

Two retired quarterbacks, Jim Plunkett and Eli Manning, have won two Super Bowls without getting their bust in Canton. Eli still may squeak in one day. But, it’s unlikely Plunkett ever will since he never made a Pro Bowl.

Brady’s Pro Bowls confirm that he wasn’t merely a steward of a great supporting cast. He was winning games, and his third title launches him past the bubble and into the Hall.

The only quarterbacks with three or more rings to their name are Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, and Troy Aikman. All were inducted on the first ballot. By joining this extremely exclusive club, Brady locked up his induction at 27.

This Brady would be looked at as a wunderkind who burst into the league, won three titles in four years (a feat not matched since), and rode off into the sunset.

2005-2010 — This Is What Peak Performance Looks Like

Brady without rings, I know, it’s weird.

Several players have secured an MVP without making the Hall of Fame. Shaun Alexander, Steve McNair, Rich Gannon, and Boomer Esiason did so most recently. Most of these were the byproduct of outlier seasons, but they were never able to replicate their success.

The list of multiple-MVP winning players is synonymous with legends of the game. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. Each is comfortably in Canton, with Rodgers coming to join them swiftly. Brady’s second MVP, not to mention his record-shattering 2007 campaign, gets him in the Hall, period.

This Brady would be remembered as one of the best players of his day who came up agonizingly short in the postseason.

Like I said, weird.

2011-2016 — He Can’t Keep Getting Away With It

In these six years, Brady was selected to the Pro Bowl every year. His Patriots made the conference title game six years straight (never been done before or since).  He advanced to the Super Bowl three times, and brought home the Lombardi twice.

Let’s take a look at Hall of Famer Joe Namath for a moment for comparison. Broadway Joe won Super Bowl III, but got ousted in the first round of his only other playoff appearance. He never won MVP and has five Pro Bowls to Brady’s six in this span. Namath has 27,663 passing yards, a slight edge, but notched only 173 touchdowns against a whopping 220 picks. Brady beats him, no question, and having a better career than a Hall of Famer puts you in the Hall in my book.

This Brady would be seen as a robot who does nothing but collect Pro Bowls and win playoff games.

So, not much different.

2017-2020 — Father Time Who?

Tom Brady began a Hall of Fame career at age 40.

The list of quarterbacks who have won both an MVP and a Super Bowl is a small one, and all are in the Hall or bound for it as soon as they’re eligible. There is only one exception: Joe Theismann. Theismann won Super Bowl XVII, lost XVIII, and took home the 1983 MVP trophy. Lawrence Taylor ended his career in 1985, but with his team winning the Super Bowl just two years later with career 49.5% passer Doug Williams under center, you can’t help but think that if Theismann hadn’t been snapped in half, he’d have won that ring and made the Hall.

Brady did just that. He won an MVP and two Super Bowls in three appearances (on two teams!) while tying Theismann’s two Pro Bowls. The knock against other multiple Super Bowl winning quarterbacks is that they didn’t have a HoF-level talent peak. Brady was the best player in the league, and earned his bust in just these four years alone.

I like to think in this timeline, he accepted his 18th round draft pick by the Montreal Expos and became a big league catcher. After he hung up his mitt, he decided to give football a try and became the first rookie MVP since Jim Brown.

Not bad for a quadragenarian.

FOUR

He’s had four Hall of Fame careers so far.

Can’t wait to watch the fifth.